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Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy: 15 (Theory and Decision Library a: )
S. O. Funtowicz
(Author)
·
J. R. Ravetz
(Author)
·
Springer
· Paperback
Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy: 15 (Theory and Decision Library a: ) - Funtowicz, S. O. ; Ravetz, J. R.
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Synopsis "Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy: 15 (Theory and Decision Library a: )"
60 -I 137.0 29 ERROR BARS - tONE (1" 4 E a. a. Z30 137.0388 0 137.0377 20 0 to 0 '50 Fig.1. Successive recommended values of the fine-structure constand IX-I (B. N. Taylor et 01., 1969,7) reminder that the value is not fully accepted by colleagues, since they will expect it to jump about for a while longer. Our next example is taken from a recent study in the social sciences. It shows how a set of related estimates of uncertainty can be expressed clearly and effectively by NUSAP. Suppose that we wish to forecast what the future price of a basic commodity might be, especially when at the moment its price is artificially maintained by a cartel of producers. There is no experimental evidence on such a future contingency, and yet we are not completely in the dark. There is a long history of expertise in the field; and there is a well-tried standard model by which experts' guesses can be translated into mathematical form.
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